Hurricane Isaias Escapes El Niño, Becomes First Atlantic Region Hurricane of the Year

The US Gulf Coast has been spared the impact of major storms this hurricane season. That’s almost certain to change this weekend.

Hurricane Isaias (pronounced “ee s ah EE ah s”) became the first hurricane to form to the US’ south or east since last year. It marks the longest such stretch since storm tracking via satellite began in 1966. AccuWeather estimates it’s the latest the Atlantic region has gone without a hurricane in 121 years. 

The storm was upgraded to hurricane status Thursday morning. That means it had sustained winds of around 85 miles per hour. It is set to make landfall between Mississippi and Florida as a strong Category 2 storm (winds between 96-110mph). Forecasts warn of driving rain and large storm surges. Alabama Governor Kay Ivey has declared a state of emergency in 40 counties. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida did the same for 25 counties in his state.   

Experts point to one major factor to explain why hurricanes have been so scarce in 2026. They blame El Niño. It's a weather pattern of warm Pacific Ocean surface waters that has wide ranging effects. One of those effects is to reverse the flow of air across North America. It has stirred up wind shears that break up Atlantic storms. The wind shears cut off a storm's ability to form in the upper atmosphere. Gulf waters are the warmest on record. That's often a recipe for frequent and intense storms. But only Isaias has managed to escape the shearing effect.   

"While El Niño does produce more frequent periods of wind shear across the Atlantic, it doesn't mean that wind shear will always be present," AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva wrote. "Isaias was able to find one of the breaks in the shear."   

Reflect: What would you most want to know about a storm before it arrives?